“One of the things that hardly anyone in our society talks about is the ‘longevity revolution,’” said Steve Flatt, CEO and Chief Inside Director, National Healthcare Corporation (NHC), at a recent talk for a Rotary Club of Murfreesboro meeting.
The number of octogenarians in America is increasing exponentially. The reasons for this are many, Flatt explained. First, there was the baby boom that began in 1946 after World War II. Between 1946 and 1964 78 million children were born. The record year was 1957, when more than four and a half million children were born. That record wasn’t broken until 2007 when 10,000 more births occurred than took place in 1957.
Next, there is the improvement in healthcare with the creation of public health initiatives for better hygiene, increased medical knowledge, and the introduction of antibiotics and vaccines to combat disease.
Lastly, everyone has had more and better food to eat. Technology and agri-science have increased food production.
The average life expectancy in 1800 was 35 years of age, by 1900 that had increased to 46 years of age, in 1950 it had increased again to 68 years old, and by 2015 that number increased to 78 years old. During the pandemic, that number did decrease slightly.
“Two-thirds of all of the men and women who have lived past the age of 65 in the history of the world are alive today,” added Flatt.
Currently, there are three states where 20% of the population is made up of people over the age of 65, by 2030 there will be 26 states. One of them will be Tennessee.
“When you combine the increased birth rate with the increased life expectancy, you end up with a lot of old people,” noted Flatt. The number of people over 80 has increased significantly just in the last five years. This is what he calls the “Longevity Revolution.”
Flatt quoted futurist and aging expert Ken Dychtwald, ”The longevity revolution, at the end of the day, will have a greater impact on who we are, what life is like, the nature of relationships, and national economies than either the industrial or technological revolutions of the past two centuries.”
Being in the senior living business, Flatt “loves old people,” but, he noted, their care is more expensive. And he stated, the number of family caregivers is decreasing. Currently, there are 53 million people caring for aging parents and grandparents, with out-of-pocket costs an average of $10,000 per year not including their time. However, the number of family caregivers is decreasing because the United States population growth has slowed. The country barely grew in population over the last several years.
The number of family caregivers in 2000 was 6.3 caregivers. By 2030, there are only going to be 4.1 caregivers for every person over the age of 85. That ratio is less than half of what it was three years ago. This means that there will be a need for more paid caregivers and domestic workers, but that number is decreasing also.
Actually, the total number of people working as a percentage of the population is decreasing. In 1960, there were six individuals who worked for every one that did not. That ratio was down to 3.6:1 in 2020, and expected to be 2.6:1 by 2050. When President Roosevelt created Social Security in 1935, there were 44 workers for every one person receiving payments.
“What you have here is a perfect storm,” said Flatt.
What this all means is that the aging population will be putting a strain on social security, Medicare and Medicaid, and they will need personal care when there will not be enough people to care for them. Even now, senior living communities are seeing a shortage of nurses and paid caregivers.
Flatt says there are ways to take some strain off the system, like increasing the retirement age to 70. That would save about 20% of the cost of social security, and Medicare would save billions of dollars.
Allowing businesses to bring in workers from other countries to fill the voids in certain industries. One example that Flatt gave was dealing with the shortage of nurses and the growing need for them in skilled nursing facilities and long-term care facilities. NHC has had to bring in nurses from the Philippines, but there are quotas limiting the number they can hire per year.
He feels that Medicare and Medicaid reform will have to happen. Flatt stated that 30% of the cost of care of someone over 80 is end-of-life care in their last year. An increased use of hospice to help with end-of-life care can lessen costs.
Flatt also sees technology taking over some of the labor shortages. While AI can’t do everything, it will be able to do all types of things with information. He also sees that there will be new treatments and technologies that will enhance the quality of life as we age.
As Albert Einstein once said, “No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it.” We will have to find new ways to deal with this issue.
“We are going to have to do something to take care of our elderly, that is just common sense,” Flatt said in closing.
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