UPDATE: Oct 1, 11:00pm
Ian made landfall on September 30 near Georgetown, South Carolina. Later, Friday afternoon, Ian was declared a Post-Tropical Cyclone. NOAA reports that river flooding will continue through next week across portions of central Florida. The National Hurricane Center has issued its last advisory related to Ian. Ian is expected to dissipate across southern Virginia; there are no more watches or warnings in effect for Ian.
UPDATE: Sept 30, 11:52am
At 1100 AM EDT, the center of Hurricane Ian was located about 60 miles east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina. Ian is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). Ian is forecast to move more quickly toward the north Friday followed by a turn toward the north-northwest by Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Ian will reach the coast of South Carolina Friday, and then move farther inland across eastern South Carolina and central North Carolina Friday night and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian should maintain about the same strength before landfall later, then weaken and rapidly transition into a post-tropical cyclone overnight. Ian should dissipate over western North Carolina or Virginia late Saturday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km). A sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust to 87 mph (140 km/h) were recently reported at an elevated WeatherFlow station on Winyah Bay Range in South Carolina.
UPDATE: Sept 29, 11:13am
Thursday, Tropical Storm Ian produced flash floods across central and east central Florida, heavy rainfall spreading up the northeast coast, working its way up towards Jacksonville and storm surge pushing into northeast Florida, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Inundation of up to 3-5 feet above ground level is expected in much of the northeast coast.
NBC News reports that more than 2.5 million Floridians were without power Thursday morning.
Ian is now considered a Tropical Storm; however, NOAA predicts Ian will regain hurricane status overnight Thursday night as it approaches the coast of South Carolina. A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the entire coast of South Carolina and a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect for the Georgia coast and northeast Florida coast.
Those along the Georgia, South Carolina and even North Carolina coast could see storm surge inundation of as much as 4-7 feet above ground.
National Hurricane Center’s Acting NHC Deputy Director Michael Brennan provides a live update on Tropical Storm Ian.
UPDATE: Sept 28 5:11pm
Hurricane Ian made landfall just north of Naples and the Fort Myers area, reports NOAA.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday.
- Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida coast, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday.
- Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Ian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.Twitter user BirdiePeeWX found this incredible timelapse footable of the storm moving into Sanibel Island.
Here is a time-lapse of the #StormSurge coming in on Sanibel Island, #Florida caught on a live traffic cam. This was only 30mins condensed down, it deteriorated quickly. 😬 #HurricaneIan #Hurricane #Ian pic.twitter.com/JKuNROvMm4
— BirdingPeepWx (@BirdingPeepWx) September 28, 2022
UPDATE: Sept 28 7:35am
Ian is expected to cause catastrophic storm surge, winds and flooding in the Florida Peninsula starting later Wednesday, reports National Hurricane Center.
The latest information from NOAA is that At 8:00 AM EDT, the eye of Hurricane Ian was located by Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data plus Key West radar about 55 miles (90 km) west of Naples, Florida. Ian is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). This general motion with a reduction in forward speed is forecast today, followed by a turn toward the north on Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move onshore within the hurricane warning area later Wednesday morning or early afternoon.
The center of Ian is forecast to move over central Florida Wednesday night and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts.
Ian is now a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Ian is forecast to make landfall on the west coast of Florida as a catastrophic hurricane. Weakening is expected after landfall. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches) based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data.
UPDATE: Sept 27 11:20am
- Ian is now a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, with sustained winds near 115mph with higher gusts
- At 11am EDT, the center of Hurricane Ian was located about 305 miles south-southwest of Sarasota, Florida.
- Ian is moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with a reduction in forward speed is forecast Tuesday night and Wednesday.
- On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, pass west of the Florida Keys later Tuesday, and approach the west coast of Florida within the hurricane warning area on Wednesday and Wednesday night.National Hurricane Center’s Acting Director Jamie Rhome provides a live update on Hurricane Ian.
Original Story: Sept 26, 2022
- The highest risk is from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region.
- Hurricane-force winds are expected in west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning. Heavy rainfall may cause flash, urban, and small stream flooding over Florida this week.
- NWS says atmospheric and oceanic conditions remain very favorable for
additional intensification during the next 24 hours or so, as Ian moves
over the very warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico while the shear remains quite low.
- At 500pm ET on Monday, the center of Hurricane Ian was located about 155 miles southeast of the western tip of Cuba. Ian is moving toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slightly slower forward speed is expected on Tuesday. A turn toward the north-northeast with a further reduction in forward speed is forecast on Wednesday.
- National Hurricane Center intensity forecast calls for Ian to become a major hurricane
before it reaches western Cuba early Tuesday. It is then forecast to
reach its peak intensity over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in 36 hours.
- A look at Hurricane Ian Peak Storm Surge Forecast
Water levels along the immediate coast could reach the following heights above ground level within the indicated areas.
- At 5pm Monday evening, the National Hurricane Center reported that Hurricane Ian was now a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Category 2 storms are classified as having 96-110 mph winds
- The graph below shows the timing of tropical-storm-force-winds: